Top Ten Matches of the Weekend with Predictions

April 15 - 17, 2023

After back-to-back weeks of having four matches featuring a pair of WCR Top 25 Clubs in the World, we will have a much lighter weekend on that front this time around.  In fact, we only have one such match, coming out of England, unsurprisingly.  That match will feature Chelsea hosting Brighton in a match that is much more important for the visitors than it will be for the hosts.


As for the rest of the matches on the list, we have some great matchups between mid-table clubs, we have some battles between clubs who are trying to qualify for European slots next season, and we even have one of our favorite derbies coming out of Spain.


As is our custom here, our list is compiled based not only on how highly ranked the participating clubs are, but also on how competitive we expect the matches to be.  Our list is based on power ratings and win probabilities determined by FiveThirtyEight, and it is their numbers that we use.  So, with so many matches every weekend, if you don’t know what to watch, we are here to help!!!


1 - (18) Chelsea vs (20) Brighton (Eng) (Saturday)


This is the only matchup this week between clubs currently in the WCR Top 25. In all fairness, Chelsea is playing for nothing but pride at the moment - and I’m not sure how much of that they can have left.  There are still plenty of difficult matches ahead for the Blues, beginning with this one.  Brighton, on the other hand has been a happy surprise.  Their hope of a Champions League spot might be over now, but they still have an outside shot at a spot in the Europa or Conference Leagues next season, and a win here will go a long way in achieving that goal.  Our Prediction:  Chelsea 1 Brighton 1.


2 - Wolfsburg vs (21) Bayer Leverkusen (Ger) (Sunday)


These are two clubs with European hopes that are going in opposite directions at the moment.  Wolfsburg has only picked up six points in their last six matches while Leverkusen has won seven consecutive matches in all competitions.  Wolfsburg’s problems recently have involved them not being able to put away their opposition and managing only a point from their close matches.  Playing at home, we expect the same this week.  Our Prediction:  Wolfsburg 2 Bayer Leverkusen 2.


3 - Aston Villa vs (10) Newcastle United (Eng) (Saturday)


This is a battle of two of the hottest teams in England or anywhere else.  Aston Villa has six wins and one draw in their last seven matches, while Newcastle has won five in a row itself.  Villa has a great shot at a Europa or Conference League spot at the pace it’s going, while Newcastle’s sights are set a bit higher.  This should be an exciting match and is not easy to predict.  We’ll try anyway.  Our Prediction:  Aston Villa 1 Newcastle United 2.


4 - Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad (Esp) (Saturday)


This is a great year for the Basque Derby!  Visitor Real Sociedad is still in fourth place in La Liga, with ten matches left, setting them up with a great chance to qualify for next season’s Champions League.  Athletic club, meanwhile, has been hovering just below the European spots in La Liga and has plenty of opportunities to move into one of those spots.  Both clubs have received votes in the most recent WCR Top 25 Clubs in the World computations.  Plus, it’s the freakin’ Basque Derby!!!  This should be great!  Our Prediction:  Athletic Bilbao 1 Real Sociedad 0.


5 - Köln vs Mainz (Ger) (Saturday)


This is another Bundesliga battle between a middle of the Bundesliga table club against a club that has performed very well recently and is looking to qualify for a European cup competition next year.  In fact, Mainz has six wins and two draws in their last eight matches, including victories over Leverkusen and Leipzig.  We are going against the grain, however, and selecting Köln to pull out a point here.  Our Prediction:  Köln 2 Mainz 2.


6 - Fiorentina vs Atalanta (Ita) (Monday)


Atalanta is currently in the Serie A Conference League position and is only four points behind AC Milan in the final Champions League position, but their 0-2 home loss to Bologna was a big blow to the club from Bergamo. Meanwhile, Fiorentina has been moving up the table in rapid speed, collecting ten wins and two draws in their last twelve matches in all competitions, including victories over both clubs that call the San Siro home.  This club is no joke.  They still have a shot, however remote, at making Europe again next year while they cruise through the UEFA Conference League.  Our Prediction:  Fiorentina 2 Atalanta 1.


7 - VfB Stuttgart vs (11) Borussia Dortmund (Ger) (Saturday)


Despite its win over Bochum this weekend, Stuttgart is still in the relegation zone, while Dortmund now has only one focus - catching Bayern Munich for the Bundesliga title.  We like both these clubs and think this could be an interesting match, though it would be going too far out on a limb to predict anything other than a Dortmund victory.  That being said, we think it may be closer than many people expect.  Our Prediction:  Stuttgart 2 Dortmund 3.


8 - West Ham vs (5) Arsenal (Eng) (Sunday)


This may not seem like a great match on paper, especially given West Ham’s 1-5 shellacking at home at the hands of Newcastle United last week, and the fact that West Ham is still in danger of relegation, but that loss to the Magpies was the Hammers’ first loss at home in all of 2023.  Add in the fact that all of the Gunners’ matches are magnified because of the tightening Premier League race, and this practically turns into must-see TV.  Our Prediction:  West Ham 0 Arsenal 2.


9 - Getafe vs (4) Barcelona (Esp)  (Sunday)


There are six clubs in La Liga’s Primera Division that have worse goal differentials than Getafe, yet Getafe has only three points separating them from the relegation zone.  With a thirteen point lead, Barcelona has mostly wrapped up the championship this season, so they have less interest in this particular match than they would have had the first time these clubs played, when Barcelona won 1-0 at Camp Nou.  We’re not comfortable here telling you to bet on an upset, but we do have an eye on it as a definite possibility.  Our Prediction:  Getafe 0 Barcelona 2.


10 - Wolverhampton vs Brentford (Eng)  (Saturday)


This match is here because it should be a good match with a lot of talent on the pitch.  That being said Wolves are still trying their best to avoid relegation.  They are coming off a big win against Chelsea, but a lot of clubs have been able to say that this year in the week following a match against the Blues.  Meanwhile, Brentford has seen their European dreams collapse with only two points coming from their last four matches combined.  Will the Wolves beat another higher ranked club this week, this time on the road?  That’s probably too much to hope for.  Our Prediction:  Wolverhampton 1 Brentford 2.