I’m grown, you’re grown, we’re all grown here, so I’m not going to sugar coat this.  After a few tremendous weekends of football around Europe, this week is . . . well . . . it is what it is.  We still have a few matchups of ranked clubs and some matches of high importance, but it seems like most of the best teams in the world are playing some of the more mediocre teams in the world, making finding ten great matches a challenge.  But, ladies and gentlemen, it is a challenge we’ve met.  Please enjoy the list below and feel free to argue on Facebook, Twitter or YouTube if you disagree.  Have a great weekend!!!

Top Ten Matches and Predictions - Weekend of May 13-15, 2023

1 - (5) Arsenal vs (19) Brighton (Eng) (Sunday)

This is one of the two matches we have this week featuring a pair of clubs in the WCR Top 25 Football Clubs in the World, and it is also one in which both clubs are playing for something significant, kind of.  Arsenal does have a mathematical shot at winning the Premier League title, though FiveThirtyEight is putting that at only 13% at the moment.  Brighton has only a 1% chance of making the UCL, but it does have about a 50% chance of making the top six, so the match means something to them too.  In this weak weekend of matchups, we’re going to have to settle for that as the top match.  Our Prediction:  Arsenal 3 Brighton 1.

2 - (24) Aston Villa vs (22) Tottenham Hotspur (Eng) (Saturday)

This is the other matchup of ranked clubs and both are fighting for something.  The Spurs have about a 40% chance of qualifying for something in Europe.  Aston Villa’s chances are less than 10%, but that’s a chance, I tellz ya!!!  Anyway, in the lack of something better, we’ll put this one near the top as well.  Villa has been weak recently, and Spurs are coming off of a win for a change, but Villa will be a much tougher opponent than Crystal Palace was, we expect.  Our Prediction:  Aston Villa 2 Tottenham 1.

3 - Union Berlin vs Freiburg (Ger) (Saturday)

Above are matches involving good teams of limited importance.  This one is of very high importance, though the clubs aren’t as good.  Following a weekend in which both lost, neither of these clubs appeared in the Top 25 of any of the five statistical ranking systems that we use to compile the official WCR Top 25.  Nevertheless, one of these clubs will very likely take a UCL spot from the Bundesliga this year and the other will very likely end up taking the Europa League spot.  Union and Freiburg are both sitting at 56 points, with Union currently in fourth place, with a +4 goal differential lead over Freiburg.  Whoever can manage to win this match, if anyone does, has a huge leg up in the race for fourth place, with only three matches to come for each club afterwards.  Our Prediction:  Union Berlin 1 Freiburg 0.

4 - Monaco vs Lille (Fra) (Sunday)

This battle of unranked clubs in France makes the list as sort of an outlier.  This is kind of like a Europa League spot playoff match.  At the moment, Monaco is five points ahead of Lille for the fourth place spot in Ligue 1, but a victory by Lille on Sunday will bring them within two points of the French Riviera club with three matches to go, which is very doable.  First things first, though, this will be a must-win match for Lille.  Our Prediction:  Monaco 2 Lille 3.

5 - Leicester City vs (5) Liverpool (Eng) (Monday)

This seems like a strange one to have here, but stay with me.  Leicester is 14th in the Premier League in goal differential, yet they are currently in a relegation position, fighting for their top tier lives.  Liverpool is one of the hottest clubs in the world right now, having increased their chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League to 29%.  This looks like a lopsided match on paper, and very well may be one on the pitch as well, but this match is ranked so high because it does have legitimately high stakes for both clubs.  Our Prediction:  Leicester 0 Liverpool 2.

6 - VfB Stuttgart vs (20) Bayer Leverkusen (Sunday)

This match is like the Leicester/Liverpool match mentioned above, though with clubs that aren’t quite as good as their English counterparts.  Leverkusen is having a great European season, but they are sitting in a Conference League position in the Bundesliga, and they are going to have to fight to hold on to that.  Stuttgart, like Leicester, doesn’t feel like a relegation club but that’s what they are at the moment, holding onto 16th place, just below Schalke 04.  This match does have some importance for both clubs, so it is ranked higher than it probably would have been otherwise.  Also, it should be a really good match, and we’re going for the upset in this one.  Our Prediction:  VfB Stuttgart 2 Bayer Leverkusen 1.

7 - Villarreal vs Athletic Bilbao (Esp) (Saturday)

From here on, we are starting to scrape a bit.  Both of these clubs are good, not great, clubs.  Villarreal has a very slight chance (7%) of finishing top four, but a very strong chance (93%) of finishing top six, so they seem destined for next season’s Europa League.  There are five teams within three points of seventh place, which is a Conference League spot in La Liga, and Athletic Club is one of those.  In fact, they are tied with the current seventh place club, Girona, on points.  So, good teams . . . a few things to fight for . . . we’ll take it!  Our Prediction:  Villarreal 1 Athletic Bilbao 0.

8 - Celta Vigo vs Valencia (Esp) (Sunday)

This is the only match on our list in which the only true importance is that of relegation for one of the contestants.  Celta Vigo is safely through to next season’s Primera Divisíon, but they have no shot at Europe.  Valencia, however, is sitting in 17th position, the final safe one, despite having a -4 goal differential, which one would expect to put them safe in the middle of the table, but that’s not the case.  They should definitely have the motivation, but will they have the firepower?  They haven’t for much of the season . . . Our Prediction:  Celta Vigo 2 Valencia 1.

9 - Real Sociedad vs Girona (Esp) (Saturday)

As mentioned above, Girona is in La Liga’s final European spot at the moment and they are fighting off a group of four clubs to keep that spot.  Real Sociedad is also battling, in a sense.  They are currently in Spain’s final Champions League spot for next year, and they have a 91% chance of landing in that spot, but they still need nine points in five matches to fully eliminate the competition.  In a week when most of the top clubs are expected to be in lopsided matches, this shouldn’t be a bad one to watch.  Our Prediction:  Real Sociedad 2 Girona 0.

10 - Bologna vs Roma (Ita) (Sunday)

After last week, when all of the top clubs in Italy faced off with each other, we knew we couldn’t maintain that excitement forever.  This week is the opposite, with very few competitive matches anticipated.  Still, we included this one because Bologna is probably the best opponent of the top seven Italian clubs, and they will be at home, so this promises to have a high probability of being a close match.  As we keep saying, this doesn’t promise to be the most exciting weekend in European football.  Our Prediction:  Bologna 0 Roma 2.