Once again we have a great weekend of football with five matches involving a pair of ranked clubs going on for the second week in a row.  To make that happen, we had to extend the weekend to Tuesday to accommodate the London derby between Arsenal and Chelsea.

For the second week in a row, an Italian match is top of the list, as Roma and AC Milan battle it out for the final UCL spot from Italian Serie A.  Also for the second week in a row, the number two match is from a cup competition.  PSV Eindhoven and Ajax will do battle in the first major domestic league cup final of the year when they square off in Rotterdam for the KNVB Beker trophy.

We’ve modified the way we are selecting our entrants on the list this week.  We are still applying formulae that we use based on data we pull from FiveThirtyEight.com, but we are now using that info only as a guide to prevent some of the absurd results we have seen.  We are now arranging the matches in the order in which we would most like to see them as fans, using the data we have as tiebreakers rather than as strict rules.  We think this will provide a more reasonable list and a more enjoyable experience for anyone who chooses to follow it.  Thanks and enjoy!!!

Top Ten Matches and Predictions - Weekend of April 29-May 2, 2023

1 - (22) Roma vs (14) AC Milan (Ita) (Saturday)

It is difficult to understate the importance of our Match of the Week for this coming weekend.  Roma and Milan are tied on points AND goal differential in the fourth and final Champions League spot in the Italian Serie A.  The winner of this match gets a big leg up in the race to next season’s UCL, while the loser finds themselves behind the proverbial eight ball.  Both clubs have been playing well recently, with both clubs playing in the semifinals in European competition, although Roma was beaten in their most recent match at Atalanta.  Milan has turned things up a great deal in recent matches, but the question is whether they are able to provide these performances consistently, which has been an issue all season for the Rossoneri.  For this match, we are giving the advantage to the home team in a low-scoring affair.  Our Prediction:  Roma 1 AC Milan 0.

2 - PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax (Ned) - KNVB Beker Final (Sunday)

This is the second week in a row that the second spot in our rankings belongs to a non-league game.  Last week, it was the FA Cup semifinals, and this week it is the championship match of the KNVB Beker.  This final will matchup PSV Eindhoven and Ajax in what should be a heated battle.  PSV has dominated this rivalry recently, including a huge 3-0 victory last week by PSV in Eindhoven.  This week’s match, however, will take place in Rotterdam and just like Ajax was able to turn it up in the semifinals to knock out Feyenoord in the semifinals, we are betting on them doing it again in the final and getting a little revenge on one of their top rivals in Dutch football.  Our Prediction:  PSV Eindhoven 0 Ajax 1.

3 - (6) Arsenal vs (21) Chelsea (Eng) (Tuesday)

We are kind of cheating by adding this one to the list seeing as it will not be played until Tuesday night, but it is in the same matchweek as all of the other matches on the list, so we thought we’d allow it this time.  This London derby is probably the best matchup of talent in the most talented league on the planet.  Of course, Chelsea is not playing for much at this point, but Arsenal will still be playing in an attempt to win the Premier League title for the first time in almost two decades (regardless of how the match against Man City ends up, which hasn’t been played at the time of publishing this list).  Just those facts alone are what place this match so high on this list.  What keeps it from getting any higher, however, is the fact that we don’t expect it to be very competitive, despite Arsenal’s recent struggles.  Our Prediction:  Arsenal 3  Chelsea 1.

4 - Union Berlin vs (20) Bayer Leverkusen (Ger) (Saturday)

This is the top match this week from the most exciting league race of the season.  Leverkusen has been playing tremendously well recently, but they still find themselves in sixth place, which is the Conference League spot in the Bundesliga.  Union Berlin, meanwhile, hasn’t been playing poorly, but has been inconsistent and has not beaten a top six club in the Bundesliga since February 12.  For our prediction, we are going with Leverkusen maintaining current form, but expect Union to be able to take a point away from the home match.  Our Prediction:  Union Berlin 2 Bayer Leverkusen 2.

5 - (9) Manchester United vs (25) Aston Villa (Eng) (Sunday)

This should be a wonderful match between two of the top five clubs in the Premier League at the time of this writing.  To be fair, however, as of the morning of April 26, Aston Villa has played more matches (33) than almost any other club in the Premier League, which is why they are placed so high.  While they have a five-point lead over Brighton, for instance, they have also played four more matches.  Even with those disadvantages, though, Villa has been one of the Premier League’s hottest clubs over the past few months, even moving into the WCR Top 25 Football Clubs in the World.  They have more than a fighting chance against Manchester United, but probably not at Old Trafford, where the Red Devils haven’t lost since Real Sociedad won there on September 9, and haven’t lost a league match since Brighton won there on August 7.  Our Prediction:  Manchester United 2 Aston Villa 1.

6 - (13) Inter Milan vs (23) Lazio (Ita) (Sunday)

This is our companion piece to our match of the week.  There are four clubs within four points in the fourth and seventh place positions in Serie A, which is also the difference between playing in the Champions League and watching all European competitions from home.  Four of these top seven clubs face off this week, with Inter Milan hosting Lazio on Sunday.  Lazio has been the surprise of Serie A this season, but with a shocking home loss to Torino last week, they are now only two points above Juventus for second place.  Inter Milan has been inconsistent all season in Serie A competition and have lost an unfathomable three consecutive home matches in league play.  This should be a great matchup of a team that knows how to score (Inter) against a club that knows how to keep the ball out of the back of the net (Lazio).  Our gut tells us that Lazio will break under the pressure, especially at the San Siro, and the Nerazzurri will be able to make the league race even more interesting for the final month.  Our Prediction:  Inter Milan 2 Lazio 0.

7 - (7) Liverpool vs (24) Tottenham Hotspur (Eng) (Sunday)

This match is on the list because it is one of five matches this weekend that feature two clubs that are currently ranked in the WCR Top 25 Football Clubs in the World.  The reason it is ranked so low is because we really can’t see it being competitive.  Liverpool has been inconsistent all year, but has picked up eight points in their last four matches, including draws against Chelsea and Arsenal.  Spurs, on the other hand, appear to be falling apart and losing their hold on what, at one point, appeared to be a solid run for a European spot.  We will see if the recent change in management will help turn things around, but we don’t have a lot of confidence in Tottenham at the moment.  Our Prediction:  Liverpool 4 Tottenham Hotspur 1.

8 - Wolfsburg vs Mainz (Ger) (Sunday)

This is a contest between the two clubs that are in the first two positions outside of the European spots in the Bundesliga.  Wolfsburg was ranked as recently as January and Mainz is on a ten-game unbeaten streak and coming straight off a 3-1 shock victory over Bayern Munich last weekend.  Mainz is only two points behind the German Conference League spot and Wolfsburg is only two points behind Mainz.  Beating up on each other won’t help either one of them, and the club ahead of them (Bayer Leverkusen) has also been lights out recently.  We believe this should be a fantastic match, but we are, for the second week in a row, calling for Mainz’s streak to come to an end . . . but we were wrong last week.  Our Prediction:  Wolfsburg 2 Mainz 1.

9 - Osasuna vs Real Sociedad (Esp) (Friday)

Real Sociedad is holding on to fourth place in La Liga, as well as the final UCL spot from Spain, with a six-point lead over Real Betis with seven matches to go (as of April 25).  Osasuna is only two points behind Villarreal for sixth place and a Conference League spot themselves.  On top of that Osasuna is preparing for their Copa del Rey final matchup with Real Madrid.  Both of these clubs are much better than some people give them credit for.  Real Sociedad has been struggling recently away from home against good, but not great, clubs like Osasuna and have not won away from home in over two months.  We believe this trend will continue and Osasuna will find the back of the net once for the victory this weekend.  Our Prediction:  Osasuna 1 Real Sociedad 0.

10 - Koln vs Freiburg (Ger) (Saturday)

Freiburg has been shocking the rest of Germany by holding on to the fourth and final UCL spot from the German Bundesliga despite having only the eighth best goal differential in the league.  Koln has proved capable recently and has a four-game non-losing streak going.  They are one of those clubs that have no chance at Europe and no chance at relegation, but they may be playing some of their best football of the season.  We see this home match for them to be a good opportunity to take some points from one of the frontrunners and make the final weeks of the Bundesliga season even more exciting.  Our Prediction:  Koln 1 Freiburg 1.