In the few weekends leading up to the international break, if you recall, we had very few matches featuring two clubs ranked in the WCR Top 25 Clubs in the World.  Well, coming out of the break, we are making up for that with four . . . count them . . . four such matches taking place.  Two of them are taking place on Saturday, April 1 and two of them are taking place the following day, and none of them will be played simultaneously, so you can enjoy all of the action if you so desire.

The top two ranked matches come out of England on successive days, with both of the Manchester clubs taking on quality competition in Liverpool and Newcastle United.  Meanwhile, the top two teams in the German Bundesliga go at it with a chance of the top spot changing hands when it’s over.  We even have a preview of the upcoming UEFA Champions League quarterfinals coming out of Italy on Sunday night.

As is our custom here, our list is compiled based not only on how highly ranked the participating clubs are, but also on how competitive we expect the matches to be.  Our list is based on power ratings and win probabilities determined by FiveThirtyEight, and it is their numbers that we will be using.  So, with so many matches every weekend, if you don’t know what to watch, we are here to help!!!

Top Ten Matches and Predictions - Weekend of March 31 - April 2, 2023

1 - (1) Manchester City vs (7) Liverpool (Eng) (Saturday)

The scoring of our top two matches this week was incredibly close.  This one rated 455.89 and the second–place one rated 455.72.  (For context, numbers three through five all fall in the 420s.)  This one is on top because it is the best combination of clubs playing each other this week.  That being said, City is still a solid favorite over England’s sixth-place club.  City is still fighting for the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League titles.  Liverpool is just hoping to finish in the top four in England, which FiveThirtyEight currently gives them a 28% of accomplishing.  Erling Haaland appears to have gotten his groove back, and we are looking for him to get a brace in a very one-sided match.  Our Prediction:  Manchester City 3 Liverpool 0.

2 - (18) Newcastle United vs (9) Manchester United (Eng)  (Sunday)

This match does not quite have quite as much firepower and some of the other matchups between WCR Top 25 clubs, but since it is taking place at St. James’ Park, we expect it to be the closest of the four matches.  Marcus Rashford may be the best English player there is right now; meanwhile in the northwest, Callum Wilson owned the first part of the season and Miguel Almiron the second, but it looks like now is Alexander Isak’s turn.  He has looked great the last two weeks and we look for him to help Newcastle stake its claim to a top four spot with a victory over a big name opponent.  Our Prediction:  Newcastle 2 Manchester United 1.

3 - (2) Bayern Munich vs (11) Borussia Dortmund (Ger) (Saturday)

If the matches were ranked based solely on how important they are, this one would definitely be number one.  In their final matches before the international break, Dortmund won and took advantage of Bayern Munich’s loss to move into first place in the German Bundesliga, far and away the most exciting race among the big five.  The thing that keeps this match from ranking higher is that Bayern is such a huge favorite.  Both teams are very good, but Bayern is more fully loaded and they have something to prove after their recent loss to Leverkusen, especially since they have Manchester City coming up soon in the Champions League quarterfinals.  We are wrong sometimes, of course, but we don’t see Bayern wasting this opportunity to take back first place with authority.  Our Prediction:  Bayern Munich 4 Borussia Dortmund 1.

4 - (3) Napoli vs (22) AC Milan (Ita) (Sunday)

Of our four matches involving a pair of ranked clubs, this is the only one featuring two clubs that are still alive in the Champions League.  In fact, this match is a bit of a preview because these two clubs will face off with each other in the quarterfinals of that tournament next month.  Napoli has been frighteningly dominant over Serie A competition, holding a 19-point lead over Lazio in the Serie A table.  Milan, meanwhile, has only picked up one point in its last three matches in the league and is now in danger of being knocked out of its top four spot by both Roma and Juventus.  They have more to play for in this one, but we think Napoli will try to send a message to Milan leading into the Champions League tie and go big against Milan.  Our Prediction:  Napoli 3 AC Milan 1.

5 - Villarreal vs Real Sociedad (Esp)  (Sunday)

This is a match between the teams bookending Real Betis in La Liga’s Europa League position in the Primera Division table, so it could obviously have a lot of impact on the European spot determination from Spain.  Real Sociedad is in the final Champions League spot, three points above Betis, while Villarreal is four points behind, in the sister-kissing Conference League spot.  While Real Sociedad has proven to be the better club over the past few years, the superiority over Villarreal isn’t great and they will be playing at the Estadio de la Ceramica.  This one should be close, but we expect the Yellow Submarine to pull it out, thus making the battle for the final Champions League spot from Spain all the more closer.  Our Prediction:  Villarreal 2 Real Sociedad 1.

6 - (12) Chelsea vs Aston Villa (Eng) (Saturday)

In the very middle of the Premier League table, neither one of these clubs has a chance in Hell of making the top four in the league, and neither of them has a chance in hell of being relegated.  What are they playing for?  Our happiness, that’s what.  Chelsea, as disappointing as they’ve been, are still highly ranked on all five of the sites we use to determine the rankings, and Aston Villa even slipped into a #25 spot on one of them (ClubElo).  Chelsea’s defense is one thing that’s been good all season, and though they have had trouble scoring goals, they do have six goals and seven points from their last three Premier League matches.  We think the good times will continue to roll.  Our Prediction:  Chelsea 2 Aston Villa 0.

7 - Rennes vs Lens (Fra)  (Saturday)

This is the French version of the Villarreal - Real Sociedad match mentioned earlier.  The home club is in the Conference League position in Ligue 1 while the home club is in France’s final Champions League spot.  After PSG in first place, the battle in Ligue 1 for position is pretty tight, with a lot of clubs of similar quality.  This one in particular should be a battle, and we don’t expect the result to be definitive.  In fact, we think it will just make the race tighter.  Our Prediction: Rennes 2 Lens 2.

8 - (19) Brighton vs Brentford (Eng)  (Saturday)

Unlike the matchup between Chelsea and Aston Villa, both of the clubs in this match have a shot at making the top four, though with two matches in hand, Brighton & Hove Albion’s chances are a good deal better than Brentford’s.  Two of the happier surprises in the Premier League this season, this match should be exciting.  Both clubs can score and both have motivation.  Brighton’s close proximity to a European spot is probably better motivation than Brentford’s, and they are playing at home, so we will go with Brighton for this one.  Our Prediction:  Brighton 3 Brentford 1.

9 - Crystal Palace vs Leicester City (Eng)  (Saturday)

What’s more exciting than a relegation battle against decent teams?  Crystal Palace has not won a match in 2023.  NOT ONE MATCH!!!  In the current year, however, they’ve played Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle United, Tottenham, Brentford, Brighton (twice) and Manchester United (twice).  Meanwhile, Leicester is coming off a draw against Brentford after losing five in a row, but their last win was a 4-1 victory over Spurs.  Neither of these teams should probably be relegated, but that is what they will be fighting over.  The last thing either needs is a draw, so that is what we are predicting, of course.  Our Prediction:  Crystal Palace 1 Leicester City 1.

10 - Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen (Ger)  (Saturday)

While this is a matchup between a club that is on the fringes of qualifying for Europe against a team that is firmly in the relegation zone, it could be a really great match.  Leverkusen has won three in a row, while Schalke has not lost any of their previous eight matches.  It’s true Schalke has five draws in that time, but they also have a victory over Union Berlin.  They are definitely not playing like a club destined to be relegated.  We are so, so close to picking a draw in this match, but we are going with Leverkusen making it four in a row on an extra time penalty kick.  Our Prediction:  Schalke 1 Bayer Leverkusen 2.