Top Ten Matches of the Weekend with Predictions
March 17-19, 2023
Last week, we noted that it was rare that no WCR Top 25 Clubs faced each other during the weekend. This week, it only happens once, but it is a great one. A superclasico between Barcelona and Real Madrid on Sunday night may close the door on any slight chance that Real Madrid still holds on to for a league title.
We do have another rarity this week, though. For the first time I can remember, there are no English matches in the Top Ten. Some of the top clubs aren’t playing because their matches were canceled to make space for FA Cup quarterfinal matches. Some of the top clubs are playing crappy clubs in the FA Cup. As for the rest, there just aren’t any really good matchups.
This does make room, however, for our first matches from the Portuguese Primeira Liga and the Dutch Eredivisie. The top two clubs in the Netherlands face off while the second- and third-place teams in Portugal do the same. If you don’t get a chance to watch either league regularly, this is a good week to try them out.
Another anomaly in our list is that eight of the ten matches on it take place on Sunday. That is going to make for a very busy day, so get your rest and don’t worry about calling in sick on Monday morning if necessary.
As is our custom here, our list is based on power ratings and win probabilities determined by FiveThirtyEight, and it is their numbers that we will be using. So, with so many matches every weekend, if you don’t know what to watch, let us help!!!
Top Ten Matches and Predictions - Weekend of March 17-19, 2023
1 - (4) Barcelona vs (3) Real Madrid (Esp) (Sunday)
At 491.63, this match received the highest rating of any match in the brief three-week history of the Top Ten Matches of the Weekend calculations. That can’t be a surprise as this match features two of the top five clubs in the world in yet another superclasico. Already sporting a nine-point lead, a win by Barcelona will pretty much put an end to all drama with respect to this season’s La Liga title. A victory by Real Madrid will give it a little bit of hope, though it would still take a minor miracle for them to catch their eastern rivals. Our prediction? It’s a Barcelona match, so what else? Prediction: Barcelona 1 Real Madrid 0.
2 - (12) Inter Milan vs (19) Juventus (Ita) (Sunday)
This is one of a few potentially fantastic matchups in Serie A this weekend. Inter is in second place and will be playing at home on Sunday, but Juventus has been making a push recently and is within sniffing distance of at least a European Conference League spot for Italy. With a +22 goal differential, however, Juventus has proven to be much better than their point total suggests, so this should be a great match between two historically fantastic Italian clubs. Inter have been quite inconsistent, but they often show up against the better teams. Prediction: Inter Milan 2 Juventus 0
3 - Bayer Leverkusen vs (1) Bayern Munich (Ger) (Sunday)
This is a matchup of top teams, though Leverkusen did drop out of the WCR Top 25 this week and Bayern dropped from first to second on the same list. Bayern was finally able to open up a two-point lead in the German Bundesliga this week after Dortmund drew with Schalke, but they are still in a dogfight for German dominance. With this being the last club match prior to the international break, we expect Bayern to go all out and score yet another domestic league victory. Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 1 Bayern Munich 4
4 - Lazio vs Roma (Ita) (Sunday)
With the Serie A title being uncontested, there are four clubs battling for the final three Champions League spots, all within three points of each other, and these are two of those clubs. Throw in the fact that it is a derby and this match has all of the makings of a fantastic matchup. Though Lazio is technically the home team, both clubs call Stadio Olimpico home, so there will be help there. I’m calling for a draw and, with Inter playing Juventus, this already tight battle may get even tighter. Prediction: Lazio 1 Roma 1
5 - Reims vs Marseille (Fra) (Sunday)
This is the point in the list when great matchups take the place of great teams in the Top Ten list. Marseille is currently in second place in Ligue 1 and set up well for a European spot, if not a UCL spot. In eighth place, Reims might seem middling, but they have lost fewer matches than Marseille. In fact, they have not lost a Ligue 1 match since September, picking up points in an amazing 19 consecutive matches. Unfortunately, they only picked up a point in ten of those matches, as they lead the league in draws with 13 on the season. Everything points to this being another one of those, though Maseille did win the season opener 4-0. Prediction: Reims 2 Marseille 2
6 - Osasuna vs Villarreal (Esp) (Sunday)
This is a battle for a European spot for next season, with Villarreal currently in the European Conference League spot (6th) and Osasuna two spots and four points behind. Villarreal has been playing well recently, while Osasuna suffered a painful loss at Valencia. This important match is probably too close to call, so we won’t call it. Prediction: Osasuna 0 Villarreal 0.
7 - (22) Ajax vs Feyenoord (Ned) (Sunday)
These two clubs are only three points apart from each other and have only lost a combined three Eredivisie matches all year. They both have seven draws, which might lead one to expect that again, but under new management, Ajax has looked strong recently and we expect that to continue and allow Ajax to pull into a tie on points with Feyenoord. If they do draw, however, look out below as AZ and PSV are currently only 5 and 6 points behind the leaders Feyenoord at the moment. Prediction: Ajax 3 Feyenoord 1
8 - VfB Stuttgart vs Wolfsburg (Ger) (Saturday)
At the moment, Stuttgart is in the Bundesliga relegation zone, even though their goal differential is the 13th best in the league. Wolfsburg is currently in eighth place, even though their goal differential is the fifth best in the Bundesliga. This will be a fight between two clubs that have been underachieving most of the year. You would expect that to result in additional disappointment with both clubs dropping two points this week, but we believe desperation will kick in and allow Stuttgart to get out of the relegation zone, at least for the time being. Prediction: VfB Stuttgart 2 Wolfsburg 1
9 - Espanyol vs Celta Vigo (Esp) (Saturday)
This match has much more relevance to relegation than it does to Europe, with Espanyol just a point above the relegation zone and Celta just four points above Espanyol. That being said, their forms are not bad as Celta have two draws and two wins in their last four matches while Espanyol has won two of their last four, though they have fallen in their two most recent ventures. Neither of these teams needs a draw, but that is what we are expecting both of them to get this weekend. Prediction: Espanyol 1 Celta Vigo 1.
10 - Sporting Braga vs (16) Porto (Por) (Sunday)
Though Benfica has amassed an eight point lead in the Premeira Liga, these two clubs are only two points apart in the race for second place, with Sporting CP not too far behind in fourth place. Both clubs have been cruising against easier competition, though Porto did suffer a shocking loss to Gil Vicente a few weeks ago. Just like they took care of business against Sporting about a month ago, I expect Porto to be able to score three points, but this will be a tough matchup against solid competition. Prediction: Sporting Braga 1 Porto 2