Last week, we lamented the lack of great games taking place over the weekend.  We are in much better shape this week.  We have three matches involving a pair of WCR Top 25 Clubs, and another three matches between one ranked club and another one that received points in our ranking system.  The most interesting part of our match rankings is that this week, the top six matches come from six different countries, so you should expand your horizons and check out leagues you may not follow normally.  As a note, when we refer to percentages below, we are using those provided by FiveThirtyEight, because we find that site rather trustworthy when it comes to such things.  

Please enjoy the list below and feel free to argue on Facebook, Twitter or YouTube if you disagree.  Have a great weekend!!!

Top Ten Matches and Predictions - Weekend of May 19-21, 2023

1 - (7) Napoli vs (8) Inter Milan (Ita) (Sunday)

This is the top match of the weekend because it is a battle between two WCR Top Ten clubs, but it doesn’t really matter much.  Napoli has already won the Scudetto and Inter Milan has a 92% chance of finishing in the top four in Serie A and qualifying for next season’s UCL, and that’s not even counting the 20-30% chance they have of qualifying by winning THIS season’s UCL.  Inter Milan has won eight straight matches in all competitions, so some may favor them, but we think Napoli is going to play this like it’s own version of a Champions League match since it will be their last match at home against tough competition.  They will want to make a statement.  Our Prediction:  Napoli 2 Inter Milan 1.

2 - Sporting CP vs (15) Benfica (Por) (Sunday)

This match looks meaningful on paper, but it’s mostly just potentially meaningful.  Benfica is three points away from winning the Primeira League title, but it has two matches to do so.  If it fails this week, they will have the last place team at home the following week against whom they can clinch.  Sporting is only four points behind Braga for the UCL qualifying position from Portugal, but both of Braga’s remaining matches are against clubs in the lower half of the table.  As such, Benfica has a 95% chance of winning the league and Sporting has a 95% chance of playing in the Europa League.  All-in-all, however, this is a great matchup of Lisbon rivals and should be watched by everyone.  Our Prediction:  Sporting 1 Benfica 1.

3 - (5) Liverpool vs (23) Aston Villa (Eng) (Saturday)

This is a match with consequences for both clubs, though much heavier for the home team.  Liverpool has won seven matches in a row and is just waiting for Newcastle or Man United to slip up so it can take a UCL spot for next season away from one of them.  Their last real test this season will be on Saturday against Aston Villa, who still has a nearly 30% chance of finishing in the top seven, and thus earning a spot somewhere in the European competitions next year.  They have some motivation, but the Reds have more and, let’s face it, Liverpool is just a better club.  Our Prediction:  Liverpool 3 Aston Villa 0.

4 - (2) Bayern Munich vs (14) RB Leipzig (Ger) (Saturday)

This is yet another match involving two ranked clubs, and one that is of importance to both clubs.  Leipzig needs only three points in its last two matches to guarantee a top four finish and a trip to next season’s UCL, so if they don’t come this week, they could still come at home the following week against Schalke.  For its part, Bayern Munich needs to win out to guarantee its eleventh consecutive Bundesliga title.  The only reason this match is this low on the list is because, like the Liverpool/Aston Villa match, we expect it to be rather one-sided.  Our Prediction:  Bayern Munich 4 Leipzig 1.

5 - (4) Barcelona vs Real Sociedad (Esp) (Saturday)

This is a matchup of two really good clubs, with Sociedad barely missing out on making its debut this week in the WCR Top 25.  Having already won the title, this match has little meaning to Barcelona, but Real Sociedad is in fourth place in La Liga, with a five-point lead over Villarreal and four matches to go.  They currently have an 80% chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League, and a win at Camp Nou would go a long way towards achieving that goal.  We’ll see how much Barça has left in the tank, I guess.  Our Prediction:  Barcelona 2 Real Sociedad 0.

6 - Lille vs Marseille (Fra) (Saturday)

This match involves two of the better clubs in Ligue 1 who are still trying to improve their relative positions.  Marseille is in third place, two points behind Lens.  That is important because the third-place club in France goes to the UCL qualifying round while the second-place club goes to the Group Stage of the UCL.  As for Lille, they still have about a 25% chance of qualifying for the Europa League and a 25% chance of missing continental cup competitions completely, so they will care as well.  Like elsewhere, we will go with the home club here out of default.  Our Prediction:  Lille 2 Marseille 1.

7 - (24) Tottenham Hotspur vs Brentford (Eng) (Saturday)

Brentford is pretty much toast with respect to earning a European cup competition next season, though they have not been mathematically eliminated from finishing in the top seven in the Premier League yet.  Spurs, on the other hand, will most likely end up somewhere in Europe, with the Europa League being the best bet at the moment.  Brentford has been the much hotter team in recent weeks, with three wins and a narrow loss to Liverpool in their last four matches.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them pull this one off too, but we are pulling back a little bit on this one and predicting a draw.  Our Prediction:  Tottenham 2 Brentford 2.

8 - Freiburg vs Wolfsburg (Ger) (Friday)

Both of these clubs have something to play for, at least to some degree.  Freiburg will likely end up in next season’s Europa League, but it does still have a 9% chance of qualifying for the Champions League, so it has hope.  Wolfsburg, meanwhile, has about a 50% shot at making the Conference League, so we will get a hint of how important doing that is to them.  We think the home team will win out here in a tight match.  Our Prediction:  Freiburg 1 Wolfsburg 1.

9 - Valencia vs (3) Real Madrid (Esp) (Sunday)

This match has some meaning for Valencia, who is battling to stay out of the relegation zone in La Liga.  They are currently three points clear with four matches remaining and they have only a 7% chance of getting relegated, but a victory over Los Blancos would pretty much seal the deal.  Real Madrid is battling for second place over city-rival Atlético, but I’m not sure how much motivation that will provide them.  Our Prediction:  Valencia 1 Real Madrid 3.

10 - (10) Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna (Esp) (Sunday)

Similar to the Real Madrid match above, Atlético’s only real motivation is to re-pass Real Madrid for second place, which will win them nothing but pride, but sometimes pride can be very motivating.  As for Osasuna, after losing out in the final of the Copa del Rey, they are only one point behind Girona for seventh place and a Conference League spot for next season.  Again, the motivation that provides is questionable, but may exist.  Our Prediction:  Atlético Madrid 2 Osasuna 0.